Trading Expectancy Calculator
Bring win rate and outcome size into the same calculation.
Performance summary
+0.20R
33.33%
Use averages from the same sample. Keep costs in the same units as the outcomes.
Calculation details
- Gross expectancy
- +0.20R
- Cost per trade
- 0.00R
- Outcome units
- R-multiples
R and $ label the units of your inputs; switching does not convert them. Add costs only when your outcomes are not already net.
Understand the calculation.
Expectancy = win probability × average win − loss probability × average loss − average cost per trade
Expectancy combines how often you win with the size of wins and losses. Use actual averages from one consistent sample, measured in R or in the same currency. A target ratio is not a realized average win.
How to use the calculator
- Use win rate and average outcomes from the same set of closed trades.
- Enter positive magnitudes for average wins and average losses.
- Choose one consistent unit: R, dollars, or another account currency.
- Enable Add trading costs only if those costs are not already included in the averages. Otherwise leave it off to avoid deducting fees twice.
Worked example
At a 40% win rate, 2R average win, 1R average loss, and 0.05R average cost per trade, gross expectancy is 0.20R. Net expectancy is 0.15R per trade. The corresponding breakeven threshold is 35%. This is an average under the inputs, not a forecast for the next trade.
What this calculation assumes
- A two-outcome win/loss model. For samples with breakeven trades, use the arithmetic mean of all realized R results instead.
- Cost is the average cost across every trade, in the same units as the wins and losses.
- Historical expectancy is an estimate. Small samples, outliers, and changing market conditions can make it unstable.
Educational estimates, not trade recommendations. Actual fills and exchange rules can change outcomes. Money inputs use one consistent quote currency; the $ symbol is an example currency label.
Frequently asked questions
Can a strategy win less than half its trades and have positive expectancy?
Yes. Larger average wins can offset more frequent losses. A 40% win rate with 2R wins and 1R losses has 0.20R gross expectancy before costs.
Should I use R or dollars?
R helps compare trades with different initial risk budgets. Dollar expectancy measures cash outcomes but can be dominated by larger positions. Do not mix R wins with dollar losses.
How do I include breakeven trades?
For a full trade log, sum the net R results including breakevens and divide by the total trade count. This two-outcome calculator assumes the non-winning trades are losses.
Formula references
Read the reasoning
How to Use Expected Value to Decide Which Trades Are Worth Taking
Learn to calculate trading expected value in R-multiples, include fees, and review your setup data with more discipline.
From the journalThe Only 5 Metrics That Tell You If Your Trading Strategy Actually Has Edge
Use win rate, average win and loss in R, expectancy, and net R to assess a trading strategy without relying on dollar P&L.
Keep calculating
Breakeven Win Rate Calculator
Find the win rate needed to break even from average reward, average loss, and trading costs. Compare risk reward ratios with a free calculator.
Profit Factor Calculator
Calculate profit factor from total winning and losing P&L. Understand results above or below one, zero-loss samples, and the effect of trading costs.