Breakeven Win Rate Calculator
Find the win rate that offsets your average losses.
Breakeven summary
33.33%
2.0
The threshold is a calculation, not a prediction of your strategy’s win rate.
Calculation details
- Net winning outcome
- +2.00R
- Net losing magnitude
- +1.00R
- Cost per trade
- 0.00R
R and $ label the units of your inputs; switching does not convert them. Add costs only when your outcomes are not already net.
Understand the calculation.
Breakeven win rate = (average loss + cost per trade) ÷ (average reward + average loss) × 100
Breakeven win rate is the threshold where average gains just offset average losses and costs. It is a mathematical threshold for your assumptions, not an estimate of how often your strategy will win.
How to use the calculator
- Enter the expected or observed average reward and average loss as positive amounts.
- Keep both amounts in R or in the same currency.
- Enable Add trading costs only if the average outcomes do not already include those costs.
- Compare the threshold with an observed win rate from a meaningful sample.
Worked example
A 2R average win and 1R average loss need a 33.33% win rate before costs. With an average 0.10R cost on every trade, the threshold becomes 1.10 ÷ 3 = 36.67%. Use zero extra cost if your win and loss inputs are already net.
What this calculation assumes
- Two outcomes with stable average win and loss sizes. Breakevens and changing size require a full outcome model.
- The additional cost is charged on every trade.
- A threshold above 100% has no feasible solution under these inputs.
Educational estimates, not trade recommendations. Actual fills and exchange rules can change outcomes. Money inputs use one consistent quote currency; the $ symbol is an example currency label.
Frequently asked questions
What win rate breaks even at 1:3 risk reward?
With 3R wins and 1R losses, the threshold is 25% before costs. Costs raise it; incomplete targets and oversized losses can raise it further.
Is breakeven the same as profitability?
No. At breakeven, the modeled average result is zero. A higher observed win rate can imply a positive sample average only if the other assumptions hold.
Formula references
Read the reasoning
Breakeven Win Rate: How Trading Fees Move the Threshold
Find breakeven win rate from average wins, losses, and costs. Work through 1:2 and 1:3 examples without confusing targets with realized results.
From the journalHow to Use Expected Value to Decide Which Trades Are Worth Taking
Learn to calculate trading expected value in R-multiples, include fees, and review your setup data with more discipline.
From the journalHow to Use a Risk Reward Calculator Before Every Single Trade
Use a risk reward calculator to size trades from entry, stop, target, account risk, and fees before you enter.
Keep calculating
Risk Reward Ratio Calculator
Calculate gross and fee-adjusted risk reward ratios for long or short trades. See breakeven win rate from entry, stop loss, and target. Free to use.
Trading Expectancy Calculator
Calculate trading expected value from win rate, average win, average loss, and costs. Measure expectancy in R or money and find the breakeven threshold.